Alexandria’s COVID Deaths at 73, Cases Nearing 4,000 as VDH Projects 20,000 More Cases in Virginia by Thanksgiving

There have been three more deaths due to COVID-19 in Alexandria, and the Virginia Department of Health is anticipating more than 20,000 additional cases statewide by Thanksgiving.

The death toll now stands at 73, and the victims were two women and one man. Two of the victims were in their 70s and one was in their 80s. Of the 73 deaths, 96% have been residents above the age of 50.

There are or have been 3,977 cases in Alexandria, according to the Virginia Department of Health. There have also been 322 hospitalizations since the first case was reported on March 11.. The Alexandria Health Department says that one in 12 infected residents has been hospitalized.

Across Virginia, there have been 3,344 deaths and there are or have been 156,649 cases of the virus. There have been 2.2 million PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests and the state’s seven-day positivity rate is at 4.8%.

The University of Virginia’s weekly COVID-19 model on the VDH website is projecting a rise in the number of cases with the onset of flu season. The model uses an “adaptive fitting methodology” with past and current trends and “what-if” scenarios.

“The new model also includes two ‘what-if’ scenarios to predict what we might see if cases increase in response to seasonal effects, such as schools re-opening and changing weather patterns,” according to the weekly updatel. “These ‘what-if’ scenarios assume a 10-20% increase in transmissibility beginning with the onset of flu season. The model will be updated regularly to incorporate new information… If we continue on this trajectory, we would expect 178,597 total confirmed cases by Thanksgiving.”

Demographic, Age and Sex Breakdown

Latino residents are the hardest hit with 1,846 reported cases, followed by Black residents with 824 cases, white residents with 783 cases, Asian or Pacific Islander residents with 143 cases, 90 cases classified as “other” and four native American cases.

There are or have been 2,067 women (with 37 deaths) and 1,897 men (with 36 deaths) in Alexandria with the virus. The only age groups that have not experienced a death so far are children and teenagers.

• 80+    — 31 deaths, 124 cases (Unchanged since Monday)
• 70-79 — 21 deaths, 142 cases (Two new cases)
• 60-69 — Four deaths, 297 cases (Five new cases)
• 50-59 — 14 deaths, 498 cases (Five new cases)
• 40-49 — One death, 686 cases (Five new cases)
• 30-39 — One death, 911 cases (Nine new cases)
• 20-29 — One death, 752 cases (12 new cases)
• 10-19  — Zero deaths, 285 cases (Six new cases)
• 0-9     — Zero deaths, 271 cases (Six new cases)

Testing Update

There have been 43,205 COVID tests administered in the city so far and 4,910 antibody tests. The city’s seven-day positivity rate is now at 3.9% and has been under 10% for four months.

• Arlington County has 4,148 cases, 152 deaths and a 3.1% seven-day positivity rate
• Fairfax County has 21,951 cases, 613 deaths and a 3.9% seven-day positivity rate
• Loudoun County has 7,137 cases, 128 deaths and a 5.1% seven-day positivity rate

Need a test? Inova is now offering vehicle-side and walk-in testing services for diagnosing flu and COVID-19, at the Victory Center parking lot (5001 Eisenhower Avenue).

Cases By ZIP Code

Some of the areas share jurisdictions between Alexandria and Arlington and Fairfax Counties:

• 22301 — 146 cases, 3,614 people tested (Estimated population 15,171)
• 22302 — 427 cases, 6,459 people tested (Estimated population 20,238)
• 22304 — 1,237 cases, 13,038 people tested (Estimated population 54,003)
• 22305 — 804 cases, 5,289 people tested (Estimated population 16,095)
• 22311 — 724 cases, 6,260 people tested (Estimated population 16,898)
• 22312 — 1,026 cases, 7,763 people tested (Estimated population 6,901)
• 22314 — 425 cases, 8,545 people tested (Estimated population 47,826)

Photo via CDC/Unsplash