For the third year in a row enrollment has been climbing in Alexandria City Public Schools (ACPS), but long-term projections say the city is getting close to a peak before it starts to decline again.
While on the surface student enrollment has increased over the last two decades by roughly 60%, ACPS enrollment projections say student population is expected to peak in FY 2028 before it starts to decline.
In his final monthly newsletter, Mayor Justin Wilson outlined the immediate and more long-term future of ACPS’ population:
This year, 16,335 students started in the Alexandria City Public Schools (ACPS). That constitutes an increase of 264 students from the previous year and the third year of increasing enrollment in the aftermath of the pandemic.
As we have returned to steady student enrollment growth, we have seen enrollment increases in 16 of the last 18 years. During that period, ACPS added 6,000 additional students, 60% growth during that period. While this is now the largest our school system has ever been, the last time we approached having this many children attending our schools was over 50 years ago in the early 1970s.
But Wilson noted in the newsletter that the growth is uneven. For two years in a row, elementary enrollment has declined — dropping from 8,295 students last year to 7,861 students this year. At the same time, middle and high school enrollment has continued to increase.
The study presented to the Joint City Council-School Board Subcommittee earlier this year said student enrollment is expected to get as low as 15,208 in FY 2034, over 1,000 students fewer than the current student population.
The study attributed the decline to slowing and declining birth rates and a low kindergarten capture rate.
The source of student enrollment has also been studied. Wilson said a study from last June looked at student generation rates by development type:
- 73% of Alexandria’s housing is over 30 years old
- 89% of students in the Alexandria City Public Schools live in housing that is over 30 years old
- Only 3% of ACPS students live in market-rate, multi-family housing that was built in the last 30 years
- A third of ACPS students live in low-rise apartments, with nearly all of that enrollment in apartments that are older than 30 years old
