After years of continued student enrollment growth, new projections say the student population in Alexandria City Public Schools (ACPS) will likely decline over the next ten years after a peak in 2025.
The report to the Joint City Council-School Board Subcommittee from April shows student enrollment projections declining through FY 2033, a hard-turn from population projections pre-covid.
Student enrollment is expected to hit its peak at 16,582 during FY 2028, but declining student population projections after that put student populations as low as 15,208 students in FY 2034 — a little less than 1,000 students fewer than the current student population.
“Pre-COVID pandemic, ACPS was experiencing peak growth,” the memo said. “Since 2021, the projection indicates that growth is slowing. This projection shows ACPS peaking in FY25 and slowly declining over the next 10 years.”
The memo attributes the decline to slowing and declining birth rates and a low kindergarten capture rate.
According to the memo:
Since the Fall, ACPS and the City have been working together to better understand the impacts of development on the enrollment of ACPS. Staff will continue to work together through monthly updates to development, student generation rates, and continued joint efforts. This spring, City and ACPS staff added student generation from proposed/approved developments to the baseline projection from the fall.
Meanwhile, another June report indicated that approximately 89% of the ACPS student population is in housing stock that is over 30 years old.
“Newer market-rate multifamily development houses the lowest percentage of ACPS students,” the memo said, “with only 3% of ACPS students living in apartment or condo buildings built within the last 30 years.”
