Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, according to a new Roanoke College poll released Thursday, as early voting surges across the commonwealth with just days remaining before Election Day.
The survey shows Spanberger, a former U.S. representative, leading 51% to 41% among likely voters, with just 4% undecided. The poll of 1,041 likely voters, conducted Oct. 22-27, has a margin of error of 4.05 percentage points. Spanberger’s advantage represents a 3-point increase from the college’s August poll, according to the Virginia Mercury.
Spanberger campaigned in Alexandria on Thursday, appearing at a “Latinos for Spanberger” rally at Los Tios in Del Ray alongside Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Del. Alfonso Lopez (D-Virginia House District 3), and City Council Member Canek Aguirre.
In down-ballot races, Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid 42% to 40% for lieutenant governor — a contest within the poll’s margin of error. Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares holds an 8-point edge over Democratic challenger Jay Jones, 46% to 38%.
The high level of voter interest reflected in the poll is playing out across Virginia, where more than 1.1 million residents have already cast ballots — surpassing the pace of the 2021 gubernatorial election. As of Wednesday, Virginia had recorded 1,147,229 early votes, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. That’s 96% of the 1,194,252 total early votes cast during the entire 2021 election cycle. Of this year’s ballots, 866,684 were cast in person and 280,545 by mail. Six days before the election, the state had already cast 1.1 million ballots compared to 868,764 at the same point in 2021 — a 32% increase.
In Alexandria, more than 23,000 residents have cast early ballots — already surpassing 91% of total early voting from the 2021 gubernatorial race. As of Wednesday, Alexandria had recorded 23,311 early votes compared to 25,475 total early ballots cast during the entire 2021 cycle, according to VPAP. Of this year’s ballots, 16,384 were cast in person and 6,927 by mail. Five days before the election, Alexandria had cast 23,311 ballots compared to 20,035 at the same point in 2021 — a 16% increase.
By the conclusion of early voting in 2021, Alexandria saw 16,670 in-person votes and 8,805 mail ballots. If the current pace continues, 2025 could see significantly higher early voting participation. In 2021, in-person ballots accounted for 65% of early votes cast, compared to 70% so far this year, indicating voter preferences have shifted slightly toward in-person voting compared to the previous gubernatorial election.
Alexandria has recorded 205.6 early votes per 1,000 registered voters, outpacing both Northern Virginia (185.7 per 1,000) and the statewide rate (193.0 per 1,000), according to Virginia Department of Elections data. Across Virginia’s 8th Congressional District, which includes Alexandria, 102,267 early ballots have been cast, already approaching 83% of the 122,832 total early votes in the district during the entire 2021 cycle, according to VPAP.
Early voting continues through Saturday, Nov. 1, at 5 p.m. In Alexandria, voters can cast ballots at the Office of Voter Registration and Elections at 132 N. Royal St. and the Charles E. Beatley Jr. Central Library at 5005 Duke St. The Roanoke College poll found that 27% of likely voters said they had already voted, while 67% described themselves as very enthusiastic about casting a ballot, and another 23% somewhat enthusiastic.
When asked to identify the most important issue in the election, 29% of likely voters cited threats to democracy, while 24% named inflation or cost of living. Immigration ranked third at 12%. The poll shows Spanberger winning 55% of independent voters compared to 32% for Earle-Sears. Among self-identified Democrats, 98% support Spanberger, while 92% of Republicans back Earle-Sears.
“While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so,” Harry Wilson, interim director of the college’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, told the Virginia Mercury.
President Donald Trump’s job approval in Virginia stands at 40%, unchanged from August, while Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating holds at 50%.
The attorney general contest has drawn attention following reports of 2022 text messages in which Jones fantasized about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The poll found 80% of likely voters are aware of the texts. Among respondents who said they already voted for Jones, 87% said the texts would not have changed their vote, while 1% said they would have switched to Miyares and 5% said they would not have voted in the race.
“It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general,” Wilson told the Virginia Mercury. “Everyone who ever contemplates running for public office might consider holding their tongue and stilling their hands on occasion.”
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4, with polls open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Alexandria voters must cast ballots at their designated polling place and are required to bring identification.
The Nov. 4 general election includes races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, House of Delegates, commonwealth’s attorney, and sheriff. In addition to the Spanberger-Earle-Sears race for governor, Hashmi faces Reid for lieutenant governor, and Jones faces Miyares for attorney general.
In the House of Delegates, Democrat Alfonso Lopez is running in the 3rd District, Democrat Charniele Herring in the 4th District, and Democrat Elizabeth Bennett-Parker in the 5th District. Bryan Porter is running for the Commonwealth’s Attorney, and Sean Casey for Sheriff.
Two polling locations have changed for this election: The former George Mason School Precinct will vote at Trinity Church at 2911 Cameron Mills Road, and the Olympus Condos Precinct will vote at Olympus Condos at 6301 Stevenson Ave.
Sample ballots for all three House of Delegates districts in Alexandria are available at alexandriava.gov/Elections. Voters who missed the Oct. 24 registration deadline can still register and vote on Election Day using a provisional ballot. For more information, contact the Office of Voter Registration and Elections at 703-746-4050 or [email protected].
