Alexandria’s economy could see a significant hit if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on plans to privatize federal jobs, a local policy expert said, though there’s precedent for this happening before in Alexandria.
Terry Clower, Director for the Center for Regional Analysis and a Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, said Trump winning another term could signal a major push towards privatizing jobs what are currently government jobs.
“If the Trump administration has both houses of congress on its side, we could possibly see new efforts to expand privatization of federal activities,” Clower said. “Maybe not as proportionately as large a shift in the 1980s and 1990s. If Mr. Trump’s appointees decide to shift agency activities away from the DC region, such as what we saw with some small entities in the Department of Agriculture in his first term, when combined with new privatization, we could see a dramatic downward shift in total federal employment in this region.”
Clower said the impact on Alexandria’s depends not only on whether or not Trump follows through with that, but on whether those federal activities remain in the region or move elsewhere.
“To the extent that privatized activities remain in the region, the total impact on the local economy will be muted, but there is no guarantee those jobs would remain here,” Clower said. “Mr. Trump disavowed the proposals in Project 2025 that would eliminate some agencies and displace civil service workers with appointees. We can only wait and see if he sticks to that position or seeks to upend the federal workforce in a dramatic fashion.”
Clower said he doesn’t see how such a change could be accomplished quickly, but that Alexandrians will likely know more by the end of spring.
“There will likely be strategic budgetary shifts one would expect with a change in administration that may impact categorical spending levels that could create differential impacts across our sub-regions (NOVA, Suburban Maryland, the District),” Clower said. “Those shifts will not show up until after the next budget cycle and may look different IF Democrats gain control of the House.”
The immediate impact on Alexandria may not be huge, but Clower said if Trump does take up the proposed plans to axe federal jobs in Alexandria, the city will feel it.
“I do not think Alexandria will see a huge immediate impact on direct federal jobs,” Clower said, “but if Mr. Trump and his administration take up their promised ‘drain the swamp’ initiatives, Alexandria and the rest of the region will feel the consequences.”
