Virginia families buying health insurance through the state marketplace face monthly premium increases of hundreds — and in some cases more than $1,000 — if enhanced federal subsidies expire, U.S. Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine warned Friday.
The Democratic senators called the newly released projections from the state’s Health Benefit Exchange a “grim new forecast for Virginia” in a statement decrying the ongoing federal government shutdown and Republican inaction on preserving health care tax credits.
According to the state report, a 60-year-old couple with income between $63,450 and $105,750 could see monthly premiums increase by as much as $1,076, bringing their new total to $2,023.16 per month. A family of four earning $96,450 to $160,000 could face increases of up to $349 monthly, while a 45-year-old individual earning $31,300 to $62,600 could see a $155 monthly jump, the senators said.
“It is baffling that anyone could look at these numbers and decide that the best course of action is to continue sitting idly by, but that’s the choice that Republicans in Congress continue to make every single passing day during this government shutdown,” Warner and Kaine said in their joint statement.
The warning comes less than four weeks before open enrollment begins Nov. 1 for 2026 health coverage.
The Health Benefit Exchange analyzed premium impacts across four Virginia regions — Chesterfield/Henrico, Virginia Beach, Fairfax County, and Roanoke County — finding significant variation by location and income level. For Northern Virginia residents in Fairfax County, the data shows a 60-year-old couple earning just above $84,700 could see premiums jump $913 per month to $1,846.42 total. A family of four in the county earning around $129,600 would face a $226 monthly increase, while a 45-year-old individual earning between $46,950 and $62,600 would see a $155 increase.
Roanoke County showed the highest projected increases statewide, with some couples facing the $1,076 monthly jump cited by the senators. The projections are based on a popular gold-level health plan offered in each region and reflect the full loss of enhanced premium tax credits. The analysis focused on “counties with areas of high impact” that have high enrollment, particularly among individuals earning above 400% of the federal poverty level.
The Health Benefit Exchange operates under the State Corporation Commission, an independent state agency created in 1902 with regulatory authority over insurance and other business interests.
Warner and Kaine said Democrats have introduced legislation to both reopen the government and preserve the enhanced tax credits, although they did not provide specific bill numbers. “If Republicans can get behind tax cuts for billionaires, they should find a way to support modest health care tax credits for working families before open enrollment starts on November 1,” the senators said. They also criticized recent Medicaid cuts, which they said were made “in order to offset the cost of billionaire tax cuts in the Republican budget law.”
Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress and the White House, failed to reach a funding deal before the Sept. 30 deadline, triggering the shutdown now in its fourth day. Spokespeople for Virginia’s Republican congressional delegation did not immediately respond to requests for comment Friday evening.
The enhanced premium tax credits, expanded initially under the American Rescue Plan Act and later extended, are set to expire without congressional action. The senators warned that the projections released Friday “are only just starting to scratch the surface” and said “Virginians deserve to know exactly how much more they’ll have to pay for the same health insurance they currently receive, and they should know as soon as possible.”
Open enrollment for 2026 marketplace plans begins Nov. 1.
